(Illustration by iStock/DNY59)
When 10 social change leaders gather in a room to discuss big bet giving, you might hear 15 different opinions. One fact, however, will be shared by everyone: We have entered a big bet bull market.
When it was originally defined by Bridgespan as social change gifts of more than $25M, only 18 “big bets” were identified in 2000, growing to 125 in 2020. That year, the sector’s big-bet bigwig, Mackenzie Scott, began her journey of unparalleled generosity resulting in 78 such gifts—or 430 if you lower the giving threshold to Bridgespan's current definition of $10M+—with no end in sight (especially considering Scott’s net worth remains still north of $35 billion). By 2048, $18 trillion is predicted to land in the laps of charities from the intergenerational wealth transfers of US high-net-worth families (the dominant funding source for big bets).
Much has been written in these pages about the “before” of Big Bets—how doers can become big-bettable and why donors should give big bets—as well as the “during,” how doers decide to deploy big bets and how donors can shape those decisions. But vanishingly little has been said about the “after.” How can doers, with their donors, sustain their impact post-big-bet?
With the acceleration of big bet philanthropy in the past decade, the sector now has a rich dataset of “sunsets” to learn from. Our analysis of post-big bet funding models shows four dominant funding pathways that doers pursue to sustain the resource levels they deem necessary.
1. Extending the big bet with the original funder. Spurred by tantalizing, post-big-bet impact opportunities that doers are raring to seize, some big bet donors are realizing that they can generate superior social return on investment simply by staying the course.
For instance, the Audacious Project, responsible for mobilizing $4.6 billion over the past eight years in support of 70 bold projects, recently launched a first-ever “reinvestment pilot program,” providing a secondary funding round to three grantees to continue to scale their work and sustain their impact. This initiative is meant to demonstrate the value of “providing a longer runway for organizations creating transformational change.” One such recipient, Last Mile Health, advocated hard for its “unfinished business” of demonstrating effective community-based primary care at the local level, scaling these interventions through government, and shaping the future of community health financing programs continent-wide through Africa Frontline First. This was particularly timely in light of last year’s 21 percent drop in development assistance for global health. With Audacious Project’s renewed financing of $20M over three years, Last Mile Health will improve healthcare access for more than 56 million people, a reach six times beyond what they had planned in their first Audacious proposal.
2. Attracting the next philanthropic big bet. Some big bet recipients have focused on leveraging the increased external visibility and impact built during their initial big bet to pursue a second big bet from a different funder.
For instance, VisionSpring, which tackles vision impairment in LMICs, credits its 2022 MacKenzie Scott gift with building the operational and absorptive capacity, the confidence, and the reputation to attract significant follow-on philanthropic investment from new funders, including as one of the anchor partners in the recently announced $75 million Bloomberg Philanthropies Vision Initiative. VisionSpring used the unrestricted funds from its Scott gift to build out implementation capacity that’s hard to fund—e.g., supportive supervision, training, and monitoring and evaluation—and made investments in technology, people management, and financial systems. As a result, they could effectively ramp up program delivery, increasing vision screening and eyeglasses dispensing by 40 percent in the past 18 months and laying the groundwork for further rapid scale-up under the Vision Initiative.
Audacious and Bloomberg aren’t the only big bet funders who have seen the value in doubling down on a winning horse: recognizing certain funders may be inclined to invest after an initial de-risking big bet period, efforts such as Lever for Change’s Bold Solutions Network and Gates Philanthropy Partners are designed to connect philanthropists with leading solutions from their portfolios.
3. Launching a university-style capital campaign. Social change organizations can learn a thing or two from their not-for-profit brethren in higher education, who are responsible for all ten of the largest recorded capital campaigns in US history. Universities raise exorbitant amounts by articulating a bold vision, sizing the resources required to achieve it, creating giving tiers and shovel-ready donation opportunities that push wealthy alumni to give bigger by giving together, and leveraging quiet period “early commits” to bring those top supporters’ peers to the table.
Some big bet doers are catching onto the idea that campaigns like these are a powerful way to retain some of their initial big bet donors and attract new ones to help fund a next strategic vision. For instance, at our organization One Acre Fund, one year before the expiry of our largest big bet in 2025, we launched a fundraising campaign to support 10 million smallholder farm families to generate $1 billion of new profits and assets by 2030, while improving systems outcomes across our markets. We sought to fill five “seats” each at three different funding levels, which would collectively raise the unrestricted funds that backstopped the required restricted fundraising and earned revenue to fund our five-year plan. As of this writing, we have raised about 80 percent of our ambitious goal.
Another example of a successful university-style campaign comes from Lambda Legal, the oldest and largest national NGO in America dedicated to LGBTQ civil and legal rights. Lambda Legal used the largest grant in its history–from none other than MacKenzie Scott—as the lynchpin of its multi-year “Unstoppable Future” campaign. The initial big bet served as a validator to other prospective funders, marking Lambda Legal as an organization capable of absorbing transformative funding investments. The campaign ultimately secured 17 gifts at the seven- and eight-figure levels. In addition to these principal gifts, Lambda Legal was able to build on what felt like “lightning in a bottle” momentum from the campaign to secure $200M+ in legacy pledges.
All told, Unstoppable Future clocked in as the largest comprehensive fundraising campaign in American LGBTQ history, and allowed Lambda Legal to amplify its impact by deepening its bench of portfolio-specific staff and litigators, establishing a robust pro bono attorney clearinghouse, increasing its litigation docket capacity, and investing in education and community outreach.
4. Shifting to government as the primary payer. A final funding pathway we have observed involves leaning on the proof-points developed and philanthropic leverage generated during the big bet period to entice government to fund outcomes during and after the big bet.
For instance, Youth Villages, one of the largest child welfare organizations in America, used growth capital from big bet investments made over the last decade by Blue Meridian Partners to achieve the “white whale” of spurring state government to adopt and permanently finance transition programming for young people who have recently graduated from foster care. They used the big bet funds to hire specialized new teams to research state-level policy priorities; identify and pursue new government funding opportunities; and partner directly with state governments on innovations to address their individual needs. Youth Villages’ innovation here was launching their own Requests for Applications for government agencies interested in adopting their evidence-based LifeSet program; by offering initial co-financing that tiers down over time, Youth Villages is leveraging their Blue Meridian funds to crowd in sustainable government payers who will take on financial responsibility for project delivery in the long term. And, the technical assistance they provide government applicants during the competitive RFA process, as well as ongoing support to their network of selected implementing agencies, has ensured LifeSet’s program outcomes remain strong.
The result? Nearly all of these grants have since converted to full public funding, and many have unlocked additional program expansion fully financed by government dollars. Over the last nine years, Youth Villages has granted over $35M in 15 states, which have successfully catalyzed over $120M in government funding commitments.
Many Paths to Sustaining Impact
These represent the dominant pathways we have seen, though big bet doers have spoken about others, such as results-based finance, and some choose strategic directions outside of programmatic or organizational growth post big bet. Moreover, notably the doers we spoke with haven’t necessarily confined themselves to pursuing just one pathway. Many hedge their bets by pursuing two at the same time.
For instance, the aforementioned VisionSpring credits its initial big bet with also developing the conditions in India—which bears the largest burden of uncorrected vision globally—for the government to step in as a payer at scale. VisionSpring deployed unrestricted MacKenzie Scott funds to conduct large-scale vision screening in communities with vision-intensive occupations like tea, coffee, rug making, and weaving. These targeted programs demonstrated operational feasibility and made the income and livelihoods impact case to government counterparts. Subsequently, state agencies have increased their tender-backed programs for vision correction with eyeglasses–leveraging underdeployed federal funds–and some states have signed onto the global WHO SPECS 2030 strategy.
Similarly, as noted above, Last Mile Health is co-leading Africa Frontline First, an initiative to integrate community health workers into national payrolls and health systems alongside well-capitalized, primarily donor government-funded multilaterals, such as GAVI and The Global Fund, demonstrating successful pursuit of the fourth funding pathway. Finally, Youth Villages has successfully pursued the first in addition to the fourth funding pathway, having received two additional big bets from Blue Meridian, which they are using to continue their investment in government co-funding described above.
Important lessons for doers and donors as they plan for life after the big bet.
- Most importantly, big bet funding gets already high-performing, ambitious organizations to dream and achieve bigger. It is wise to assume they will not be interested in anything other than continuing their breakneck pace of impact growth (even as they are becoming more efficient at service delivery, requiring less philanthropic investment per impact achieved, and less inclined to solving the problem on their own).
- The post-big bet period offers follow-on funders an opportunity for low-risk and high-impact return per dollar invested. This should appeal greatly to high-net-worth individuals who are happy to crowd into and stick with winning companies in their private investing, and who may be time-starved in their philanthropy. The philanthropic sector would do well to create vehicles that appeal to these funders.
- Big bet doers and their donors should “begin with the end in mind,” ideally planning well before the expiry of the initial big bet for the pathways to be pursued to sustain impact thereafter. Design choices can undoubtedly be made to programming, infrastructure, and fundraising to increase the odds of a successful post-big bet period. And it is vital for donors to see themselves as true partners, providing the transparency for their own likelihood of re-upping, ideally along with advice and connections for the work to carry forward.
As a sector, we would be wise to remember that the most successful social change initiatives took decades, not years, to achieve their ultimate goal. Hopefully, with a roadmap in hand—with four pathways already blazed by some early movers—the way ahead can become a little clearer for us all.
Read more stories by Matthew Forti & Claire McGuinness.