Countries eager to jump into the booming biofuel industry can soon use a mathematical tool to weigh the pros and cons of making that leap.
The tool, called the Bioenergy and Food Security Modeling Analytical Framework, was designed by a team of economists from the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Universiteit Utrecht’s Copernicus Institute, and the Öko-Institut in Darmstadt, Germany. The German government funded the $4 million Bioenergy and Food Security Project (BEFS), which produced the tool, after projecting that food security will become one of the world’s major problems. (The FAO defines food security as the condition of all people in a country having physical, social, and economic access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food.)
Over the next 15 to 20 years, biofuels could provide 25 percent of the world’s energy needs, according to the FAO. But the consequent scramble for land and water would mean higher food prices. And as a recent report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development states, the number of food-insecure people could rise by more than 16 million for every percentage increase in the real prices of staple foods.
At the same time, countries with thriving biofuel industries could also support rural development and raise farm incomes. To use the tool, national policymakers first create a bioenergy scenario based on the country’s policy objectives and bioenergy strategies. Next, in five steps, policymakers assess biomass potential, given environmental concerns and land availability; biomass supply chain production costs; agriculture markets outlook; macroeconomic consequences; and impact on household-level food security.
FAO began testing the tool in Cambodia, Peru, Tanzania, and Thailand in April, and concluded in September. “We had 35 formal requests for assistance, and we selected these four countries because they had very different issues,” says Andreas Von Brandt, project manager for the BEFS project. “Tanzania, for instance, has investors knocking at its doors every day; it’s relying on our recommendations.” Tanzania, like many developing countries, is already growing inedible, drought-resistant jatropha, whose oil can be used in diesel engines and processed into biomass to power electricity plants.
Other countries should have access to the tool by the end of 2008, says Von Brandt.
Read more stories by Jennifer Roberts.